Abstract: |
The rapid advancements in technology and the increasing integration of artificial intelligence into various sectors have significantly transformed predictive modelling techniques. In this context, the present study aims to forecast automobile demand in Turkey by utilizing the Non-Linear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) Artificial Neural Network (ANN) model. This approach leverages historical sales data and key economic indicators to enhance the accuracy and reliability of demand forecasting.
The study employs MATLAB (Matrix Laboratory) software to analyse the automobile sales data of six major manufacturers operating in Turkey: OYAK Renault, Tofaş, Toyota, Ford, Honda, and Hyundai. The dataset, covering the period between 2014 and 2024, is sourced from the Automotive Distributors and Mobility Association (ADMA). The NARX ANN model is implemented using monthly automobile sales data to predict future demand trends. In the model development process, several independent variables, derived from the annual activity reports published by the Ministry of Industry and Technology, are incorporated to assess their impact on automobile demand. These variables include Brent crude oil prices, the US dollar exchange rate, vehicle loan interest rates, the consumer price index (CPI), vehicle purchase levels, and automobile production quantity. The dependent variable, representing the forecasted output, is defined as the total automobile sales volume of the six selected companies. The selection of these variables is based on their potential influence on consumer purchasing behavior and market dynamics.
The constructed NARX ANN model consists of six input variables, ten hidden neurons, and one output node. The model's predictive performance is evaluated using two standard error metrics: Mean Squared Error (MSE) and Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The results indicate that the proposed model achieves an MSE of 0.0654 and a MAPE of 12.23%. These performance metrics suggest that the NARX ANN model provides a reliable approximation of real-world automobile demand trends. The low error rates demonstrate the model's effectiveness in capturing the complex, non-linear relationships among the influencing variables.
Following the model's training and testing phases, automobile demand for the twelve months of 2024 is predicted. The application of artificial neural networks in demand forecasting enhances the accuracy of predictions, facilitating better decision-making in production planning, inventory management, and marketing strategies. Accurate demand forecasts ensure that automobile manufacturers can optimize supply chain operations, reduce excess inventory costs, and improve customer satisfaction by aligning production schedules with market needs. Additionally, the integration of AI-driven forecasting models in the automotive industry can enhance reliability, competitiveness, and market responsiveness. Overall, the findings of this study underscore the potential of NARX ANN models in predicting automobile sales with a high degree of accuracy. The adoption of such advanced predictive techniques can contribute to more efficient market strategies and better adaptation to economic fluctuations. Future research could explore the incorporation of additional macroeconomic indicators and alternative machine learning methodologies to further refine demand forecasting models in the automotive sector. |