Abstract: |
This research is a natural continuation of studies exploring various categories of variables and their implications for firefighters. The motivation behind this study stems from the acknowledgment that solar activity, although it may affect health and the environment, typically is not an immediate priority for firefighting interventions. Firefighters are primarily summoned for emergency situations, prompting contemplation on how solar activity, despite its environmental impact, might exert influence on their operations. In this context, our investigation aims to comprehensively evaluate how solar activity influences firefighting interventions, with a specific focus on intervention frequency. The study's relevance is underscored by the significant impacts of solar risks on both health and the environment. Notably, the summer 2023 heatwave assessment in France recorded a number of heat-related deaths, reaching nearly 1500 during the four heatwave episodes and exceeding 5000 over the entire summer period, as documented by the Ministry of Ecology, emphasizes the crucial nature of our research. Over an eight-year period, from 2015 to 2023, our methodology encompasses data preparation, in-depth analysis, and the application of the XGBoost predictive model, known for its resilience to outliers. The iterative training pipeline selects features that enhance the RMSE score over a 24-hour horizon, highlighting the crucial importance of variables related to solar activity, especially over extended periods. The key conclusion drawn from this study is these variables exert a progressive impact on interventions, suggesting increased relevance in predicting outcomes over prolonged durations. This precision in understanding the models associated with the presence or absence of solar risk offers a practical approach to anticipate resource management, improve firefighter response times, and contribute to saving lives by addressing intervention failures during major incidents. This study initiates a comprehensive exploration of variable families to understand the factors influencing firefighting activities. |